UKIP: Farage return is no answer
Why Farage needs to not attempt a come back
As UKIP woes deepen and the organisation falls to an evermore moribund state some of the remaining kippers have called for the return of Nigel Farage to take the reins again.
It would probably be better if he remained a retired protest politician and enjoyed being a shock-jock - and maybe Kippers have a reality show to look forward to.
Of all people, Nigel Farage probably understands that UKIP rose to BBC fame because BBC saw a purpose which suited them. UKIPpers may cry that the BBC were mistaken in their confidence but still they must admit that UKIP was a favoured news item and Farage a favourite commentator and participant on question shows. The BBC were quite confident in what they were doing.
Why did BBC do this and why have they dropped UKIP for their new darling, Jeremy Corbyn? Corbyn was also reviled until a change of plan seemed to come over the good old beeb.
Like last year's boy-band, UKIP went from being a joke which was deliberately ignored to being everwhere and back to obscurity again after the final story which was the acrimonious departure of their lead singer. UKIP without Farage is like the Glitter Band without Gary. You might see an annual come-back gig but no one needs glam-rock any more. The lead singer's notoriety may live on - like Robert Williams after leaving Take That or whatever he is called after Onezone broke up.
For the media, such groups as UKIP or One Ted do serve a purpose for the media. They sell papers more cheaply than news and are a distraction from the news.
They also give the state the opportunity to manage its own opposition.
To look at likely motives behind media policy, especially state media, is not to be a conspiracy theorist. Although fears that they have got a conspiracy going on are hardly unreasonable.
It might well be that the EU-media such as BBC saw UKIP as the enemy they could beat. There are good resons for this, they still apply and they are the reaons Farage would best serve the cause by seeking a future in reality TV (it never did George Galloway any harm) or a desert monastry.
In Nigel Farage's UKIP, the BBC saw a kind of euroscepticism it believed it could easily beat, even if it came to a referendum. UKIP's support within the eurosceptic community was far from universal. Within the popular anti-EU vote, even less so. That over half of voters elected to leave the EU but UKIP support peaked at about 16%. so few eurosceptics could ever vote UKIP, makes my point. Had UKIP ever had more than a walk-on role in the referendum, we would have been thrashed.
One of the ways this works is still a significant problem for the anti-EU movement: have you ever wondered why young people are, generally, so opposed to Brexit? How does the state's (I mean deep EU) propaganda work that what should be the most rebellious generation are the most compliant and obedient? This is complex but one powerful tool in their shed is to depict or even create or at least promote an opposition that is more repulsive.
For very many young people in Britian who imagine themselves to be "progressive" (admittedly for some pretty messed up reasons and a total perversion of the facts), Brexit is seen as an all round indicator. Quite simply, the young EU-supporter knows little of the EU but has been taught that opposition to the EU somehow represents all kinds of other reactionary motivations. How does this work?
You know how some people are totaly self-obsessed narcisists with no regard whatsoever for the consequences of their actions on their neighbour - and they call themselves libertarians in total mispresentation of libertarianism? You know how some nasty, bitter people who hate their own children and just want to stop anyone else having any joy in the world - and they call themselves social conservatives in total misrepresentation of conservatism? Well, the state can hold up such people as examples of the common enemy. Stalin did this quite obviously, some states more subtly.
So you see that in the explanation of brexit to young people, UKIP is one of our biggest problems. Simply, more remain people voted against UKIP last summer than voted for the EU.
Incapable of performing the "guard dogs of Brexit" role, UKIP should dissolve.
Incapable of offering a new role to the state, it will slip into obscurity, one of those band names from the past on stage with none of the origional line-up.
The manichean core of UKIP was made of two types: opportunists who have now generally deserted and the dedicated, even thinking, brexiteers. As the election shows, the people who voted for them were not, mainly, thinking brexiteers. They might have been so stupid they thought Theresa May was the real deal but it seems from the figures that most went to Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.
These people have been characterised as "the Naughty Vote". They are not just having a laugh, they are people who are disillusioned and angry and, most healthily, disobedient. When told to do something by authority, they instictively do the opposite. How else would an Englishman react to Theresa May's project fear campaign in the election?
The BBC has seen an opportunity to manipulate and neutralise the naughty vote in Corbyn. For the BBC, his Labour are this year's boy band. They replace UKIP nicely. Corbyn even sounds like Farage.
The BBC may well have his failure ready planned as much of his following do not actually agree with his programme in as much as they understand it.
Corbyn represents a chance of buggering up brexit. BBC can represent his support as a vote against a hard brexit. Like Farage, this is not Corbyn's intention. But the BBC can make all kinds of claims and hope Corbyn will at least be a catalyst for renewed opposition to Brexit at a time when pro-Brexit forces are in disarray. I am sure I do not need to explain how this is playing out.
BBC miscalculated with UKIP to some extent: the pressure of lost votes - until they claimed to be taking equal Labour and Tory - influenced teh Tories and made EU and Cameron miscalculate again withe referendum.
Farage and UKIP would have great fun grabbing their share of the political carrion that is May. Farage, like a crow on the fence has hinted he will return if conditions are favourable. But the referendum, as is undeniable now, did not really settle things. The referendum was an episode in the struggle but we still have not created a consensus in Britain on the Brexit, nor have we seen a real transfer of power.
A revived UKIP under Farage in not the answer to the problem we face.