The German Question
Will we witness the downfall of the Fourth Reich in the next year or two?
Fourth Reich? That is extreme language is it not? In Britain it may be robust rhetoric but in some countries, Southern countries especially, it is not such an uncommon term.
Since the Brexit vote people have discussed more truthfully the domination of the EU by Germany, of how Germany uses the Eurozone as an area of somewhat beneficial trade. Since the election of President Trump there has been a more candid conversation of how Germany uses the Eurozone to distort real currency value and trade unfairly with USA.
While UK was in the EU it was quite possible to pretend that the EU was not the Fouth Reich at all. Germany could reasonably pretend that the EU was not just their empire but a kind of joint empire, that it was a kind of partnership thing. France can no longer pretend it is not in a German empire. Was there anyone else still pretending? I doubt it.
The problem for Germany has another odd aspect: with Brexit, Germany has lost her best friend in Europe. The EU has not just lost the pocket on the other hip but the vital partner in keeping the EU balance of power tipping from the bosses to the servants and their potentially crazy ways. Germany may worry not just about the increased burden of now being the sole source of funding for the expansion but also that socialiistic tendencies of the romance coutries will drag them down into uncompetitiveness and death.
We are all familiar with this scenario. So what?
The Brexit movement in Britain is quite unsophisticated in its thinking and discussions. One minute they obsess about how horrid the Remain leader , Tony Blair, is and how appalling is some woman with her attempts at erecting legal barriers. The next minute they all howl for the abolition of the House of Lords, something which had not occured to them just a few minutes earlier. It all seems minute by minute, knee jerk reactions to an overheated media. Certainly the debate on Brexit social media is shaped by what was on BBC rather than any leadership within the movement. Very, very rarely do we read anything credible that is attempting even to understand why most people voted Brexit. We only see rubbish about "left behind" or "wave of populism". Seldom will we see any discussion of how British civilisation should develop politically, culturally, spiritually or anythingly. The closest we get to any vision of the future is talk of what trade deal we might impose of the remants of the EU 's stagnating Market to have access to the British economy. And we certainly never hear anything about a European policy, a relationship with the EU, with Europe without the EU. Even contemplating the desirability of other countries achieving indepence scares respectable Brexiteers. Ask them about helping this process and they will, quite literally, run away.
We need to contemplate the future because it is definitely going to happen. Let's return to the future of Britain another day, let us look at European policy.
If you want to get anyone to read about it you have to use an inflamatory illustration.
East of the Oder, this mild winter, there is something in the air. It is change. People can smell change. Most countries, including Poland, only became free nations at the end of the First World War, that is to say the collapse of the second Reich, the empire of the Tsar and following civil war. As people celebrate their 99th independence days, the map of Europe is starting to look familiar.
The only people who seem to think that the EU wil just carry on as if it had been a stable and happy homogenous entity are British Remoaners (including, please note, HM Government). No one esle thinks things will stay the same.
What are the possibilities?
1 Soft Reich - the EU turns out not to become a Fourth Reich at all. This spring Russian hackers are victorious in elections in Holland and France, even in Germany and the whole thing goes belly up. There are rebellions in western provinces as well as Poland and Hungary, Scandinavia and Ireland go with Britain. Countries re-establish their own currencies or dollarise, starting with Greece and other southern provinces. The EU exists only really in name, sort of final century of the First Reich.
2 Hard Reich - The powerful interests that benefit from the EU regime and the sheer will to survive are triumphant. The will of the people is defeated or managed by a near-war situation, a seige mentality and a Continental System. We are talking banning of referendums, suspension of elections, new treason laws, the first use of the EU army is the suppression of dissent and strikes in those more rioty countries. The lure of the success and freedom of those outside the EU is a powerful pull on the imaginations of the subject people of the EU. The EU must reduce the free non-EU European countries -"they know they must break us on these isles" and all that - and the free countries know they must defeat the EU or never be safe. Proper horror show.
3 Hard-ish Reich - Germany makes alliance with the governments east of the Oder (and by that we include Hungary and the Slavic provinces) in order to contain the unruly western provinces of France, Italy , Spain and their allies. This would not just be about a more free-market kind of EU against the socialistic but it might go much, much deeper and involve a robust reversal of the Merkel immigrations as the price that must be demanded and paid. The medicine of humiliation has been sweetened with spoonfuls of a budget Germany alone cannot afford. No more sugar, no more humiliation. Poland is recognised as the rightful winner of 2014 Eurovision .
4 Core Reich - this is the one they seem privately to admit is likely and are actively trying to avoid. Brussels is trying to tell the USA especially that any weakening of EU hegemony east of the Oder would allow an extension of the Russian orbit to include those countries. But this is precisely what did not happen in 1919 when the Second Reich collapsed. The outside world (in 1918 that meant the Royal Navy) ensured that independence from what became USSR was achieved on the coast of the Baltic. A corridor of modern, free, democratic nations was seen then as a very desirable option indeed. So it would be in 2018. Molotov-Ribbentrop messed things up but Russia has moved on. Besides there are even nationalists in Baltic countries now who say that Russian orbit would not be so bad as what the EU is rapidly becoming. We used to say that the core would be those who signed Rome but today, who could guess? Germany plus Lothian?
5 Russification - This is the one the EU would like to really scare you with: Russian hackers have total victory, without the EU western civilisation collapses and T-14s are seen rumbling down Rue Belliard after the inevitable Franco-German war.
Option 5 is silly, it will not happen. I think they got the idea for this chapter of project fear from one of those zombie apocalypse films. But just what will happen and what are our preparations?
The anti-EU movement cannot conitue to sit around as spectators of all of this. If we seriously believe that the EU is wrecking Greece then how can we just sit and watch celebrating our little Brexit? How can I be free while my brother is in chains? There will be change. What kind of political movement does not imagine and instigate the future?
What if I am German and reading this, should I feel all bad about myself?
No. The condition of the German working class has worsened since the introduction of the Euro. Real wages stagnate, worse horrors have occured just recently. You pay taxes to pay the bad loans bankers made in Greece for Greece to buy German exports of arms and engineering.
I believe it was Ghandi on his visit to Manchester who said that those who ultimately pay for an empire are the working classes of the imperial power. Throw away your empire, it is doing you no good.