How you lost Brexit
We, the Brexit movement, have no leadership therefore defeat is inevitable. We have no leadership in the Conservative Party willing or able to seize power. We have no leadership outside the Conservative Party with the energy or imagination to organise us to meet the situation in which we find ourselves. The loss of Brexit is now inevitable. We will have a Brexit that is less like independence than the Irish Free State was - and an ongoing struggle which, like in Ireland, the forces of independence will lose.
It is not just an unreliable leadership of the Conservative party that drags down Brexit, it is some of the ordinary members of that party. Calgacus has been saying for over two years now that a Brexit negotiated by May would be no Brexit at all and that her whole approach was doomed, if not calculated, to fail. It seems obvious now but who were those people who impeded and prevented the necessary replacement of May while there was still time? Who was it who said a tougher stance was not appropriate and May was a prudent and expert negotiator, even that she was resting on the ropes like Cassius Clay? Do you remember the party loyalists who pretended for May, pretended that she had a viable strategy and should be trusted? They were people who did not just put their party before their country but put their own shabby little careers as Conservative councillors and party officers first. They are, as they were then, people with no intellectual nor moral integrity. If we listen to these idiots, cowards and traitors again tehn we will surely not deserve victory.
They say now, now that it is all but too late, that May must go but they can see no further into the future now than they could then. Our movement does not organise for the future.
The Brexit movement is still locked into a debate entirely structured by our opponents. For over two years we have talked almost exclusively about the deal with the EU and not about what Brexit actually is. So bored have the people been that they may well have forgotten about it. Can you even remember? Did you ever know? That was the plan of our adversaries and we have happily, stupidly complied.
I say nothing I did not say two years ago that the situation we face is similar to Ireland in 1922 after the Anglo-Irish Treaty and the establishing of the Free State. Ireland would be “independent” but a dominion within the British Empire (as we used to call our global single market) and members of the Dail swear allegiance to the Crown. At least Collins had fought for independence. May is no Collins but we have not even a deValera. Interestingly, Collins used the same justification as the defeated ERG, that may<s Free State will have “the freedom to gain freedom”.
Still this “Free State” situation is almost inevitable and all we can do now is plan to organise effectively in the generation-long struggle to achieve real Brexit. Yes, you can satisfy yourself with asking the question of whether it will happen without the EU being mortally weakened by an external conflict as was the British Empire by WWII. as were the Romanov and Hapsburg empires by WWI that lead to the independence of half of Europe in 1918.
What do you think might happen? Some Miracle? Do you think May will resign? The poor old lady could lie down dead and ERG would not know what to do. Do you think the EU will throw away their victory and grant, in their benificence, a good deal? No, The deal we will have is like Napoleonic Continental System.
Our problem is that we have no leadership. We have MPs who seek celebrity by saying Brexit but who has the energy and vision to organise us for what is to come after BRINO day?